Advanced Risk and Uncertainty Management Tunnel Boring Machine

Question: Dicuss about the Advanced Risk and Uncertainty Management for Tunnel Boring Machine. Answer: Likelihood of picking Tunnel Boring Machine is 0.5 and likelihood of picking Drill and Blast technique is 0.5. Likelihood of the ground being temperamental is 0.33. Subsequently, the likelihood of picking the Tunnel Boring Machine and the ground is unsteady is 0.5 * 0.33 = 0.165 The assessed development cost for this blend (mix 1) is $300000000 * 0.165 = $ 49500000. Assessed development time in months = 45* 0.165 = 7.425 months Likelihood of ground being steady is 0.67. Likelihood of ground being predictable = 0.15. Likelihood of picking a steady and predictable ground under the technique for Tunnel Boring Machine (mix 2) = 0.5* 0.67 * 0.15 = 0.05025 Assessed cost of development is $ 230000000 * 0.05025= $11557500 Assessed time in months = 34 * 0.05025 = 1.7085 Likelihood of the ground being critical water entrance is 0.3. Likelihood of picking Tunnel Boring Machine development for stable ground and critical water entrance (blend 3) = 0.5 *0.67 * 0.3 = 0.1005 Assessed cost for the development is $ 250000000 * 0.1005 = $25125000 Evaluated time in months is 40 * 0.1005 = 4.02 Likelihood of the ground being dry yet utilities deterrents is 0.55 Likelihood of picking Tunnel Boring Machine development for stable ground and dry yet utilities deterrents (mix 4) is 0.5 * 0.67 * 0.55 = 0.18425 Evaluated development cost = 0.18425 * $250000000 = $ 46062500 Evaluated time of development in months = 0.18425 * 40 = 7.37 Likelihood of picking Drill and Blast = 0.5 Likelihood of picking shaky ground = 0.33 Likelihood of picking Drill and Blast and shaky ground (mix 5) = 0.5 * 0.33 = 0.165 Evaluated development cost = $280000000 * 0.165 = $46200000 Evaluated development time = 42 * 0.165 = 6.93 Likelihood of stable ground = 0.67 Likelihood of picking reliable ground under stable ground and Drill and Blast (mix 6) = 0.15 * 0.67 * 0.5 = 0.05025 Evaluated development cost = $200000000 * 0.05025 = $10050000 Assessed development time in months = 40 * 0.05025 = 2.01 Likelihood of huge water entrance under stable ground and Drill and Blast (mix 7) = 0.5 * 0.67 * 0.3 = 0.1005 Assessed development cost = $240000000 * 0.1005=$24120000 Assessed development time in months = 47* 0.1005 = 4.7235 Likelihood of picking dry however utilities hindrances under stable ground and Drill and Blast (blend 8) = 0.5* 067 * 0.55 = 0.18425 Assessed development cost = $230000000 * 0.18425 = $ 42377500 Assessed development time = 48* 0.18425 = 8.844 It was seen that blend 2; for example picking the procedure of Tunnel Boring Machine development under the variable stable ground and reliable ground would set aside least effort to finish the errand. The errand would be finished in 1.7085 months. This procedure takes the most reduced time. The expense for this procedure is $11557500, which is the second least development cost among all the given procedures. In this way, it is ideal to pick this procedure for development. All out quote of the venture is $47 M. Four work bundles were distinguished for the undertaking. The assessed cost for work venture 1 is $7.50 M. The assessed cost for work bundle 2 is $ 18.00M. The evaluated cost for work bundle 3 is $20.17M and the assessed cost for work bundle 4 is $4.33 M. The assessments cost for each bundle is figured by the recipe (low + (4 * Most likely) + High)/6. The entirety of Estimated cost for all the four bundles was seen as $50 M. It was discovered that the hazard required to finish this venture was $%0 M - $47 M = $3 M. The normal expense of the undertaking is $56M. Its standard deviation is $16 M. The likelihood that the task cost would be over $75M is given as follows. The z score of the venture cost is (75 - 56)/16 = 1.1875 The estimation of P(X 1.1875) = 0.882485 The likelihood that the expense of the venture would be over $75 M is given by 1 - P(X 1.1875) = 1-0.882485 = 0.117515 The venture would be deferred with a likelihood of 67%; for example 0.67 The P(X Z) = 0.439913 P(X Z) = 1-0.439913 = 0.560087 The expense of the venture in this would be (0.560087 * 16) + 56 = $64.96 The general danger of the task would be $64.96 - $56 = $8.96.